SYSTEM DYNAMIC GROUP MODELING

 
 
System dynamics was developed at MIT during the 1950s by J.J Forrester. His first book Industrial Dynamics (1961) contains the seeds of a method that was to prove successful in the 1970s, notably through the Limits to Growth (Meadows and ali., 1972).


   For Forrester (1961), industrial dynamics was a way of studying the behavior of industrial systems to show how policies, decisions, structure and delays are interrelated to influence growth and stability. To speak of systems “implies a structure of interacting functions. Both the separate functions and the interrelationships as defined by the structure contribute to the system behavior” (Forrester, 1967, p. 1). To describe a system, we have to describe not only the separate functions but their method of interaction (Forrester, 1968a). So, to identify the structure of a specific system, one should understand the fundamental nature of the structure common to all dynamic systems. In Industrial Dynamics, Forrester integrated the separate functional areas of management, marketing, investment, research, personnel, production and accounting (Forrester, 1968b). Each of these functions is reduced to a common basis by recognizing that any economic or corporate activity consists of flows of money, orders, materials, personnel and capital equipment. These five flows have been integrated by an information network. Industrial Dynamics “recognizes the critical importance of this information network in giving the system its own dynamic characteristics” (Forrester, 1961, p. vii).... read more

 

uNIVERSITY cLERMONT aUVERGNE

Assistant Professor Economics

PhD «Applied Economics»

DEA « Prospect and Economic Forecasting», Option «Modeling»

University Paris Dauphine

SYsTEM DYNAMIC ?

System Dynamic Group Modeling (1)








Group Consumption                                     Group Investment









Group Production                                              Group Saving









Group Trade                                                         Group Money

 

NEWS



Conference of System Dynamic Society (SDS), Rejkjavik, Iceland, August 3-5th, 2018. Call for paper

System Dynamic Group Modeling (2)








Group Natural Resources                      Group Population









Group Food                                                   Group Energy








Group Climat                                         Group Economic Syst

 

BOOKS, ARTICLES


BOOT SWEENEY L., MEADOWS D.L (1995), The System Thinking Playbook, Chelsea Green.

FORRESTER J.W (1987), “Nonlinearity in High Order Models of Social Systems”, European Journal of Operational Research, vol 30, p. 104 – 109.

FORRESTER J.W (1981), “Innovation and Economic Change”, Futures, vol 13, p. 323 – 331.

FORRESTER J. (1979), An Alternative Approach to Economic Policy: Macro behavior from Microstructure, in Kamrany N., Ray R. (eds), Economic Issues of the Eighties, Baltimore, John Hopkins University Press.

FORRESTER J.W (1977), “Growth Cycles”, De Economist, vol 125, p. 525 – 543.

FORRESTER J.W (1976), “Business Structure, Economic Cycles and National Policy”, Futures, vol 8, p. 195 – 214.

FORRESTER J. W (1975), Collected papers of Jay W. Forrester, Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications. 284 p.

FORRESTER W. (1971a), World Dynamics, Waltham, MA: Pegasus. 144 p.

FORRESTER J.W (1971b), “Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems”, Technology Review, vol 73, n°3, January.

FORRESTER J.W (1969), Urban Dynamics, Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications. 285 p.

FORRESTER J.W (1968a), Principles of Systems, Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications. 391 p.

FORRESTER J.W (1968b), "Industrial Dynamics - After the First Decade," Management Science, March.

FORRESTER J.W (1967), “Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment”, 9th Annual Paul 0. Converse Awards Symposium, University of Illinois, April 13th, 23 p.

FORRESTER J.W (1961), Industrial Dynamics, Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.

GOODMAN M.  R. (1974), Study Notes in System Dynamics. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

LANE D.C, STERMAN J.D (2011), Jay Wright Forrester, chapter 20, in Gass S., Asssad A. (eds), Profiles in Operations Research: Pioneers and Innovators, New York, Springer, p. 363 – 386.

MEADOWS D. H., MEADOWS D.L, RANDERS J. (1972), The Limits to Growth. New York: Potomac Associates.

MEADOWS D.L (1970), The Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles, Cambridge Mass, Wright Allen Press.

MORECROFT J. D.W (1982), “A Critical Review of Diagramming Tools for Conceptualizing System Dynamics Models”, Dynamica, vol 8(1), p. 20-29.

MORECROFT J.D.W (1985), Rationality in the Analysis of Behavioral Simulation Models. Management Science, 31(7), p.900-916.

MILSUM J.H (1968), Mutual Causality in General Systems. In Positive Feedback, a General Systems Approach to Positive Negative/Feedback and Mutual Causality, Oxford: Pergamon Press.

PUGH A. (1963), DYNAMO User's Manual, Second Edition. Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press.

RADZICKI M. (2008), Institutional Economics, Post Keynesian Economics, And System Dynamics: Three Strands of A Heterodox Economics Braid, In J. T. Harvey & R. F. J. Garnett (Eds.), Future Directions for Heterodox Economics, The University of Michigan Press.

RADZICKI M. (2011), System Dynamics And İts Contribution To Economics And Economic Modeling, In R. A. Meyers (Ed.), Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics, p. 727-38, New York: Springer.

RANDERS J. (1976), Elements of the System Dynamic Method, MIT Press.

ROBERTS N. (1975), Dynamic Feedback Systems Diagram Kit, Cambridge, Mass.: Pugh-Roberts Associates.

SLATE D., FERBER R. (1968), Systems Analysis: Research and Implications for Marketing Urbana, IL: Bureau of Economic and Business, Research, University of Illinois.

STERMAN J. D (1985), “A behavioral model of the economic long wave”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, vol 6, (1), p.17-53.

STERMAN J. D (2000), Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, New York.

STERMAN J. D. (2007), “Exploring the next frontier: System Dynamics at 50”, Special issue of System Dynamics Review, vol 23 (2-3).

WOLSTENHOLME E.F, COYLE R.G (1983), “The Development  of System Dynamics as a Methodology  for System Description and Qualitative Analysis”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 34(7), p. 569-581.

WOLSTENHOLME E.F (1985), A Methodology for Qualitative System Dynamics. Proceedings of the 1985 International System Dynamics Conference, Keystone, Colorado, p. 1035-1048.

Figure from Limits to Growth (1972), Meadows....